With the Luhansk region under Russian control, President Vladimir Putin could now focus on seizing the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine before offering a ceasefire, an analyst said on Tuesday. of defense policy at CNBC’s “Capital Connection.”
“Cheese fries [may] offer the possibility of a ceasefire if only to give him[self] an opportunity to reinforce the gains he has managed to achieve so far,” said Victor Abramowicz, director of Ostoya Consulting, which advises defense industry companies.
Putin praised his troops on Monday for “liberating” Luhansk province after several weeks of bloody fighting that took its toll on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. Much of the area’s infrastructure, including residential buildings, was flattened. Many deaths have been reported.
Ukrainian servicemen ride a tank towards the Siversk front line in Donetsk on July 4, 2022. Russian forces are now focusing on capturing the Donetsk region in Donbass, the province coming under heavy shelling on Sunday, local officials say .
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Russian forces are now focused on capturing the neighboring Donetsk region in the Donbass, with the province coming under heavy shelling on Sunday, according to local officials.
Although the campaign has not gone Moscow’s way, Abramowicz said, Russia seems “almost certainly” capable of achieving its more limited goals in Donbass. If Putin then offers a ceasefire, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would be in a tough spot, Abramowicz said.
“There is no particular reason to believe that … the acceptance of a Russian ceasefire will actually lead to a lasting peace,” he said, adding that it would give the Russia the ability to fortify its troops and attack again in the future.
On the other hand, if Zelenskyy does not agree to a ceasefire, he increases “the risk of losing, potentially, in due course, some of the Western support he relies on,” Abramowicz said, adding that the choice could be forced. on him by Western leaders.
And whether Zelenskyy would agree to such a ceasefire depends on what military and financial support he feels he can receive from the West, he added.
He said there would be continued Western support for Ukraine for at least six months to a year.
November’s midterm elections in the United States, which is by far the largest contributor of military and financial aid to Ukraine, would affect American support for Ukraine, Abramowicz said.
“You have to keep in mind that there is a lot of war fatigue in America, but Americans [also] have vast resources that they can commit for decades,” he said, adding that France, the UK and Germany all have different calculations on how long they are prepared to support the ‘Ukraine.