The Gisèle Indicator strikes again

An old joke in financial journalism is that “two is a trend”, so we’ll just go ahead and name Gisele Bündchen as the worst FX indicator ever.

The appearance of the model in a four-page advertisement from The New Yorker alongside FTX’s slightly less photogenic Sam Bankman-Fried understandably caused some cheer online today given the ongoing crypto meltdown.

Crypto entrepreneur © Images by Jason Zweig of the WSJ

Supermodel © Images by Jason Zweig of the WSJ

She also made an appearance at the FTX bragathon in the Bahamas earlier this year, along with husband Tom Brady and two 1990s politicians named William Clinton and Anthony Blair. Naturallythe power couple (Bündchen and Brady, not Clinton and Blair) also own an NFT platform.

FT Alphaville doesn’t know if Bündchen was paid for the FTX ad in traditional fiat or crypto, but given her track record, we’ll bet the latter. Either way, the timing of the announcement is amazing.

In November 2007, Bündchen’s sister, Patricia, told Bloomberg that the supermodel now preferred to be paid in euros “because we don’t know what will happen to the dollar.” from Brazil Veja magazine reported that at least Pantene complied.

The story ran everywhere (including at FTAV). Even the WSJ blasted the diss on its editorial pages, using it as an excuse to slap the Fed. In addition it changes. But it turns out that Bündchen almost perfectly overtook the euro:

In fairness, modellers as well as models have struggled to deal with currency volatility, an area so hard to predict that sellside analysts often joke that God invented FX strategists to make economists appear accurate.

Maybe Bündchen’s ultimate goal is to make FX strategists feel better about themselves?

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